Yesterday we were talking about the Seahawks and how they should be the favorite to make to the Super Bowl from the NFC. Not so fast though right? I went back the last 5 years and took a look how often the team with the best record made it to the Super Bowl. Also took a look at the team with the 2nd best record and how they compared.
Before we get to the stats there is no reason why I chose 5 years, just wanted to take a look at the trends as of late. The number in () signifies how many wins the team had. Italitcs and bold signifies whether that team made it to the Super Bowl.
|2012||Atlanta (12)||Denver (13)|
|2011||Green Bay (15)||New England (13)|
|2010||Atlanta (13)||New England 14|
|2009||New Orleans (13)||Indianapolis (14)|
|2008||New York and Carolina (12)||Tennessee (13)|
So 3 of the 11 teams with the best record made the Super Bowl or 27%.
So maybe the 2nd best record did better?
|2012||Green Bay, San Francisco and Seattle (11)||Houston and New England (12)|
|2011||New Orleans and San Francisco (13)||Pittsburgh and Baltimore (12)|
|2010||Chicago and New Orleans (11)||Pittsburgh and Baltimore (12)|
|2009||Minnesota (12)||San Diego (13)|
|2008||Atlanta (11)||Pittsburgh and Indianapolis (12)|
Hmm..so 3 of the 18 teams here made the Super Bowl or 17%
So I guess it's how you look at it. Is 27% good? Well yes if you compare it to the teams with the 2nd best record, but there are also way more teams that are tied for the 2nd best record too.
So what did we come away with? What I see is just because you have the best record, doesn't mean you're headed to the Super Bowl. The last 5 years, 73% of the time your team will be going home early. Even worse if you're the 2nd best record.